A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the political, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or advocates are willing to participate even with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two essays that seek neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, duties, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the idea that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent official who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, valid points, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has possesses important lessons to gain from the alternative arguments."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."